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We like to talk about the IPO window as something that’s either open or closed.

But as the occupant of an old house with windows once held up with pulleys, I’ve also encountered a third type: A window that opens easily and then proceeds to slam shut on your fingers if you don’t prop it up or get out of the way.

This, unfortunately, could be the window type that most closely resembles the current IPO climate. It looked pretty open as the year commenced. But it also looks like it could be slamming down.

Take some of last year’s IPO darlings. Remember ? The design software company soared to a $68 billion valuation after more than tripling in its July debut. Today it’s valued around $14 billion — well below what planned to pay in its ill-fated acquisition three years ago.

The biggest fintech and crypto offerings have also fallen. Stablecoin issuer is down more than two-thirds from its peak in June. Buy now, pay later provider is near the lowest point since its September IPO. And online banking platform is also well below its first-day price.

Two other high-profile offerings late last year — and — are also down from where they started.

Now, these aren’t horrible underperformances, by IPO standards. It’s not like the 2022 SPAC meltdown, when companies went from multibillion-dollar valuations to practically worthless in a few quarters. And some of last year’s splashiest market newcomers have done well, like , which is still well above its IPO price.

But still, we were hoping to see the stage set for a boom in new offerings in 2026. Seeing last year’s most talked about new market entrants largely continue to underwhelm isn’t a great backdrop to prepare for some of the biggest offerings of all time.

That’s closer to understatement than exaggeration. , which is reportedly to launch an IPO by this summer, was reportedly previously eyeing a valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would make it by far the most valuable new listing of all time.

and are also considering the IPO path. OpenAI has reportedly filing this year, with a target valuation of up to $1 trillion. Anthropic, recently valued around $350 billion, is looking to potentially beat its rival to the public markets.

Moreover, there’s a long list of other contenders in sectors from cybersecurity to health to defense tech. Fintech looks particularly poised for exits, with , , and among the favored pre-IPO names.

One likely outcome in coming quarters is that startup backers and IPO underwriters will manage to keep the new offering window propped open long enough to get some bid deals to market.Ìý

If you are a one-of-a-kind company like SpaceX, investor enthusiasm to own a piece of a category-defining player will likely be high enough to support valuations that might look crazy ambitious for anyone else. The same could apply to OpenAI.

The more typical IPO candidate — say an enterprise software unicorn with a viable AI strategy and decently growing revenue — won’t have the same excitement generation capacity. So ordinary deals won’t likely be able to prop open a window.Ìý

Hopefully they won’t be left in the worst position if it suddenly slams shut.

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Related reading:

• ÍÃ×ÓÏÈÉú´«Ã½ Predicts: IPOs Picked Up In 2025 And The Outlook For 2026 Is Even More OptimisticÌý
• ÍÃ×ÓÏÈÉú´«Ã½ Predicts: 15 Companies That Could Go Public In 2026 As The IPO Market Gains MomentumÌý
• SpaceX IPO At $1.5T Valuation Would Be 10x Larger Than Biggest VC-Backed Listing Of All TimeÌý
• Yes, I’m Biased. But Still, Leading Unicorns Like Anthropic Should Be Prepping For IPOsÌý
• Fintech Forecast: Momentum Builds With Big Deals, IPO-Ready Companies And More AIÌý

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